Should Mets Fans fear the month of June?
The New York Mets are currently sitting at 27-21 (.563). They are winners of 6 out of their last 7 games and more importantly, they have a 4.5 game lead in the NL East. They are coming off a month of May where the impossible had happened. They had 17 players on the Injured List, a combination of stars to role players. Still, the ReplaceMets managed to go 17-9 in the month of May. The Mets received a massive jolt in the arm with deGrom, Walker, Alonso, Pillar and Lugo all returned to the team over the last 10 days. Just in time for the month of June.
A lot of Mets Fans are terrified of the month of June. They are allowing teams of Jeff Wilpon's past to muddy their excitement for this current team. Mets fans are forming negative vibes and energy around this team just because the calendar flipped a page. I simply won't stand for these takes. I mean come on, look at some of these tweets.
Ps. Follow Dylan Hornik, the man is hysterical (@_Hornik_ on Twitter).
You get the idea. So, just how bad have the Mets been in the month of June? Let's look at the past five years to see a recent sample size.
Mets June Records:
2016: 12-15
2017: 14-14
2018: 5-21 (yikes)
2019: 10-18
2020: 0-0
I wanted to do a deeper dive than just looking at their records in June though. I wanted to see how they performed the month prior and after to see if it was only June or if those teams just sucked. Here's what I found.
Mets May Records: Mets July Records:
2016: 14-15 2016: 12-13
2017: 13-14 2017: 11-13 (2017 Mets went 10-20 in August)
2018: 10-18 2018: 12-12
2019: 13-15 2019: 14-8
2020: 0-0 2020: 3-5
Mets total record over the past five years for each month researched:
May: 50-62
June: 41-68
July: 49-46
The way I look at this information? Ok, so, historically we suck in June. The Mets are 27 games under .500 in June dating back to 2016. However, those Mets teams weren't very good. The 2016, 2017 and 2018 Mets were three bad teams in particular. Let's be honest the biggest red flag is June 2018. The Mets went into June at 27-27 that year and came out of it 32-48. You're just not coming back from a fall off that steep.
The 2016 and 2019 also stand out to me here. The Mets were a strong second half team in both of those seasons. In 2016, the Mets won the NL Wild Card and then proceeded to get rag dolled by Madison Bumgardner. In 2019, the Mets came soaring back into contention with the help of NL CY Young Award Winner, Jacob deGrom, and NL Rookie of the Year Award Winner, Pete Alonso. The month of June could be looked at as the reason the 2019 Mets missed the postseason. I always thought the 2019 Mets could've easily won the World Series had they made the postseason. That team was fully capable of doing what the 2019 Washington Nationals had pulled off. Nevertheless, that's a blog for a different day.
At the end of the day, I choose to side with what's going on right now. I am looking at a Mets team playing at an extremely high level. I see injured players returning this month to supply some reinforcements. Francisco Lindor, James McCann, Dom Smith and Pete Alonso are all on fire at the dish. Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker have a combined ERA of 1.74. The Braves, Phillies, Marlins and Nationals are struggling. The Mets have a chance to build a sizable lead in the NL East with a strong month of June. It's not going to be easy, the Mets will face the National Leagues toughest teams in the Padres and the Cubs over the next week. To be the best you have to beat the best. The Mets also have three double headers scheduled for the month of June. They will face the Phillies and Nationals for four games each and they play the Braves six times this month too. Let the games begin and it starts tonight in San Diego.
I believe in this Mets team.
Let's rewrite the June narrative and Let's Go Mets.